WDPN31 PGTW 280300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (LUPIT)/
WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 NOV TO 030000Z3 DEC 2003.
	A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT.
	B. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. STY 26W WILL THEN TURN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ABOVE THE
RIDGE AXIS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR), AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
	C. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN
WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
	D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM AND MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS.
	E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR STY 26W HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING 
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, INCREASING IN SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/SPANSKI/MENEBROKER//

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