WDPN31 PGTW 271500 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (LUPIT)/
WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 271200Z2 NOV TO 021200Z5 DEC 2003.
	A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 145 KNOTS. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 19 NM EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.
	B. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE 
STEERING RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, STY 26W WILL TURN 
POLEWARD AFTER 36 HOURS, CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
	C. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN WEAKEN AS 
OUTFLOW DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
	D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM AND MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS.
	E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR STY 26W HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING 
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, INCREASING IN SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/HEATH/KELSEY/TINOCO//

NNNN