WDPN31 PGTW 251500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT)/
WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 301200Z6 NOV 2003.
	A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
160 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED 
OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
	B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY 
MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF JAPAN, IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND WEAKEN 
THE STEERING RIDGE BY TAU 24. AT THIS TIME, TY 26W WILL SLOW 
DOWN ITS RATE OF ADVANCE AND CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD 
INTO THE RIDGE WEAKNESS INDUCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, GFDN, 
AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
HOWEVER, UKMET (EGRR) AND GFDN DEPICT THE RIDGE BUILDING IN 
RAPIDLY AFTER THE TROUGH PROPAGATES AWAY FROM TY 26W, THUS 
GIVING THE SYSTEM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
	C. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT OR NEAR A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING 
WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
	D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM.
	E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 26W TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND 
TRACK POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 120. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL 
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

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