WDPN31 PGTW 230300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT)/
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 280000Z0 NOV 2003.
	A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90 KNOTS. A 222155Z7 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A BANDING
EYE FEATURE AND INCREASED CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS.
	B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG A LOW
TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JAPAN. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS,
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 26W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF AFWA MM5, COAMPS, UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, JTYM,
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS.
	C. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
	D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 221936Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
	E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 26W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
SLOWLY ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/SPANSKI/MENEBROKER//

NNNN