WDPN31 PGTW 221500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT)/
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 271200Z2 NOV 2003.
	A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I)
AT 221119Z6 INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP A CLEARLY
IDENTIFIABLE EYE. 
	B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS MOVING OFF
OF JAPAN. AFTER 48 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP A PERIPHERY RIDGE AND DRIVE POLEWARD. TY 26W WILL TRACK NORTH-
WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT MODIFIES THE ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF AFWA, COAMPS, UKMET (EGRR), JGSM,
JTYM, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS.
	C. TY 26W WILL SLOW ITS INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM PASSES EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SEEN AT 500 MB. AFTER THE 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AT NEAR ONE DVORAK T NUMBER A DAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE 500 MB RIDGE AND NEAR THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS.
	D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
	E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 26W TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY AS IT MODIFIES THE ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPS THE PERIPHERY
RIDGE, AND MOVES POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/ANDERSON/VOHS//

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