WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W/
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 250000Z7 NOV 2003.
 A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
220 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
 B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL 
STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS 
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH TIME, A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE GIVING TD 26W A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING 
OF THE UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, NOGAPS, AND AVN (GFS) MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, DURING THE INITIAL 
12 HOURS, THEY STEER THE SYSTEM MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THAN 
THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL 
DYNAMIC MODELS, PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.
 C. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE UNTIL TAU 72 AND THEN INCREASE INTENSITY AT A SLIGHTLY 
LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS.
 D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SCHULTZ//

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