WTPN31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 26W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z0 --- NEAR 12.2N5 137.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 137.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 13.1N5 136.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 13.9N3 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 14.6N1 134.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 15.3N9 133.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.6N3 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 18.2N1 129.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 20.9N1 129.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.4N7 137.5E6. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 38 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0, 260300Z1, 260900Z7 AND 261500Z4.// NNNN