WDPN31 PGTW 190300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 201200Z5 NOV 2003.
	A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
	B. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 25W IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF JTYM, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, NOGAPS, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
	C. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
ENTRAINS DRY AIR AND INTERACTS WITH LAND.
	D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE
STORM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN//