WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEPARTAK)/
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 200000Z2 NOV 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS 
BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS TY 25W HAS DEVELOPED WEAK DUAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. 
   B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, TY 25W WILL VEER 
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN 
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 36, TY 25W WILL MAKE LANDFALL 
OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND 
CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET (EGRR), 
JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING WELL 
VENTILATED BY TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND 
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TY 25W. AFTER TAU 12, TY 25W IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ALONG WITH ENCOUNTERING THE NORTHEAST MONSOON, 
TY 25W WILL ENTER AN ATMOSPHERE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 25W TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND CHINA BY TAU 48 AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SCHULTZ//

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