WDPN31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEPARTAK)/ WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 191200Z3 NOV 2003. A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, TY 25W WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 48, TY 25W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER HAINAN AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTH INTO MAINLAND CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 25W WILL ENCOUNTER THE NORTHEAST MONSOON AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ALONG WITH ENCOUNTERING THE NORTHEAST MONSOON, TY 25W WILL ENTER AN ATMOSPHERE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 48 BEFORE HEADING TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA. D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON A 150955Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 25W TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA BY TAU 72 AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DAMRON/KLINZMANN/BIRD/TINOCO// NNNN