WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEPARTAK)/
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 200000Z2 NOV 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS 
BASED ON 142330Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. 
   B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM BY 48 TO 
72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET 
(EGRR), JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED 
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MID-PERIOD, THE NORTHEAST MONSOON 
WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS TY 25W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD 
VIETNAM, IT WILL WEAKEN FROM INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED 
BY THE NORTH-EAST MONSOON IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 25W TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
VIETNAM AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SCHULTZ//

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