WDPN31 PGTW 141500
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEPARTAK)/
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 141200Z8 TO 191200Z3 NOV 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. 
   B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM BY 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET (EGRR), JGSM,
JTYM, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY MID-PERIOD, THE NORTHEAST MONSOON WILL
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS TY 25W TRACKS TOWARD VIETNAM,
IT WILL WEAKEN FROM THIS INCREASED SHEAR.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TY 25W TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
VIETNAM AT NEAR TYPHOON INTENSITY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/NOREN/COOK//

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