WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W MELOR/
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 021200Z5 NOV TO 051200Z8 NOV 2003.
        A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM 
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM. 
        B. TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN 
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD 
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE PROVIDING TS 24W WITH A 
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 12, THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE 
OUT AND THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH OF TS 24W. 
THIS WILL TRANSITION TS 24W TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TS 24W IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND NOGAPS, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
JGSM, COAMPS, NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 
18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AN THEN TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD.  
JTYM AND EGRR SHOW A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, TAKING TY 24W EAST OF TAIWAN, 
DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS AND THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TAIPEI. 
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS.
        C. AS TS 24W COMMENCES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED 
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 
        D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

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