WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W MELOR/
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 050000Z5 NOV 2003.
        A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
370 NM NORTH OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
012330Z9 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. 
LATEST ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
        B. TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 08 TO 12 HOURS BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO 
THE EAST. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND 
TOWARD THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE GIVING
TS 24W A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 12, THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF TS 24W. THIS 
WILL GIVE TS 24W A WESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT TS 24W TO KEEP THIS TRACK 
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, JTYM,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND NOGAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EGRR BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION. EGRR KEEPS TS 24W ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK AND DISSIPATING IT AT TAU 36. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR.
        C. AS TS 24W TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECT TO SEE A 
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE DECREASED INTENSITY. 
        D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 012202Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DAMRON/KLINZMANN/BIRD//

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