WDPN34 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W/ WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 231200Z8 TO 261200Z1 OCT 2003. A.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND IN THE GULF OF THAILAND, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND AN UNFLAGGED 25 KNOT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATION. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED, WHILE A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THERE IS A WELL DEVELOPED MID LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. B. THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALL THE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST, BUT VARY ON SPEEDS. THIS VARIANCE IS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. GFS INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM THE MOST, THUS HAS THE QUICKER TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 23W IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER A EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE, THUS TD 23W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. TD 23W CURRENTLY DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/DAMRON/KLINZMANN/CHITWOOD/BIRD// NNNN