WDPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (PARMA)/
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 OCT 2003.
        A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE MAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221139Z8 SSM/I PASS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221013Z9 QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST TO
WEST AXIS.
	B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUFFER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
FEW AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAI, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS FORECASTS TD 22W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. WBAI
ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE. FINALLY, NCEP GFS
TRACKS TD 22W SLOWLY TO THE EAST, THEN FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS TD 22W BACK TO THE WEST WHERE IT
ORIGINATED. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
	C. TD 22W INITIALLY FORMED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, AS TD 22W TRACKS EASTWARD, IT WILL TRAVEL
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AREA OF INCREASED CONFLUENCE ALOFT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THESE
REASONS, TD 22W IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT MUCH MORE THAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
	D. TD 22W CURRENTLY DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SHULTZ//

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