WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 21W (PARMA)/
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 260000Z8 OCT 2003.
	A. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
1450 NM WEST OF MIDWAY, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS 
BASED ON 232330Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 140 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
REVEALS A 20 NM EYE AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. 
	B. TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 
24 TY 21W WILL TRANSITION TO MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS IT IS 
INFLUENCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. 
TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET (EGRR), 
JGSM, GFDN, NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
	C. TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT WILL WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TY 21W IS 
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 
48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
	D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SCHULTZ//

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