WDPN32 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PARMA)/ WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z4 TO 250000Z7 OCT 2003. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 222337Z9 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, NOGAPS, JTYM, COAMPS, WBAI, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. JTYM AND EGRR ARE THE FASTEST MODELS DUE TO MORE AGGRESSIVE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 24 HOURS, TS 21W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL SYSTEM. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LESS THAN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/ALLEN/MENEBROKER// NNNN