WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KETSANA)/
WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z8 TO 271200Z2 OCT 2003.
       A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
       B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), JGSM,
JTYM, GFDN, COAMPS, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
       C. TY 20W HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
       D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE WIND RADII.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/ALLEN //

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