WTPN31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 20W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z0 --- NEAR 17.7N5 131.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N5 131.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 18.4N3 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 19.1N1 132.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 19.9N9 132.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 20.7N9 133.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 24.4N0 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 28.4N4 141.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 32.7N2 149.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.9N7 131.2E7. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS THOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH WITH A SYMMETRICAL EYE 20 NM IN DIAMETER MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0, 222100Z7, 230300Z8 AND 230900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN