WTPN31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 20W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z5 --- NEAR 15.9N5 131.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 131.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.4N1 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 16.9N6 131.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 17.4N2 132.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 18.1N0 132.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 19.7N7 133.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 22.6N0 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 27.7N6 138.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 131.1E6. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS DRIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. 200MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDI? TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5, 210300Z6, 210900Z2 AND 211500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN