WTPN31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- NEAR 15.3N9 130.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N9 130.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 15.5N1 130.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 15.8N4 130.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 16.2N9 130.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.9N6 131.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 18.5N4 133.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 20.5N7 135.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 23.3N8 137.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.3N9 130.1E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 845 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190514Z0 AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6, 192100Z3, 200300Z5 AND 200900Z1.// NNNN