WDPN31 PGTW 080300 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W/
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z8 TO 110000Z2 OCT 2003.
	A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS REMAINED MOSTLY QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AVAILABILITY OF VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080027Z7 SSM/I MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TD 18W IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE DEEP CYCLING
CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TD 18W.
	B. TD 18W IS LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA
AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST OF LUZON. TD 18W IS FORECAST
TO TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
AND THE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA RETREATS WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, WBAI, EGRR, AND
NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE
A HARD TIME INITIALIZING ON THE CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND ANALYSIS
OF THE MODEL FIELDS.
	C. TD 18W IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MYANMAR. TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
	D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/DAMRON/HEATH/BAK/PACILIO/ANDERSON//

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