WDPN31 PGTW 070300 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W/
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z7 TO 100000Z1 OCT 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. LATEST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAI, UKMET EGRR, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN THE SHORT TERM BY A POINT SOURCE ALOFT,
ALLOWING TD 18W TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS. TD 18W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT
OF CONFLUENT OR LINEAR FLOW ALOFT AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER
MYANMAR. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE TD 18W TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER THE 24
HOURS.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/BAK/PACILIO/ANDERSON//

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