WDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W/ WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 280000Z0 SEP 2003. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. B. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND LINKS WITH THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH- EASTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGES LINK AND CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, AND NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND REGIONAL (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE EASTERN OUTLIERS OF THE FORECAST ENSEMBLE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN AND NOGAPS. C. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RUNNING ALONG 30.0 NORTH. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN LARGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/SCHULTZ// NNNN