WDPN31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHOI-WAN)/ WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 240000Z6 SEP 2003. A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST- WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192130Z6 SSMI AND 192147Z4 AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KADENA RADAR POSITION FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF TY 16W. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. B. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND JTYM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. JGSM AND JTYM CONTINUE TO BE VERY QUICK IN SPEED. THOSE TWO MODELS INDICATE MORE AGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, RESULTING IN A FASTER TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. C. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER THE NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AFTER 24 HOURS, TY 16W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA, MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND QUICKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM THROUGH FIRST 24 HOURS. BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS WIND RADII REFLECT EXTRATROPICAL WIND PATTERNS. 3. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/DAMRON/JACOBS/NUTONGLA// NNNN