WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHOI-WAN)/
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 231200Z8 SEP 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
NORTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KADENA RADAR
OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 16W WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND
JTYM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT
VARY IN SPEED. JGSM AND JTYM INDICATE MORE AGRESSIVE INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, RESULTING IN A FASTER TRACK. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
   C. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHILE THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW. AFTER 36 HOURS, TY 16W
WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA. FORECAST WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED 96 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 16W TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/MENEBROKER/ANDERSON//

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