WTPN31 PGTW 191500 AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 008A AMENDED UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 27.1N0 128.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N0 128.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 28.5N5 129.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 29.6N7 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 30.8N1 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 32.6N1 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 38.2N3 145.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 41.9N4 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.4N3 128.6E7. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM NORTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KADENA RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3, 200300Z5, 200900Z1 AND 201500Z8. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED 72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS. THE SPEED OF ADVANCE IS QUICKER BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS.// NNNN