WDPN32 PGTW 130000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MAEMI)/
WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 140000Z5 SEP 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAEGU, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL AN ELONGATION OF THE SPIRAL BANDS. A
RECENT 122013Z9 QUIKSCAT DEPICTS AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD.
A 122332Z3 SSM/I SHOWS COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATING THAT TY 15W IS
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THAT EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS ALMOST COMPLETE.
   B. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. TY 15W WILL CREST THE
STEERING RIDGE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, NCEP GFS, AFWA
MM5 AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS.
   C. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IN 06 HOURS. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 122013Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS;
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SYSTEM
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/BAK/SANTOS/EDBERG//