WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MAEMI)/
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 150000Z6 SEP 2003.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 127, 140 AND 155 KNOTS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWING WARMER CLOUD TOPS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. STY 15W HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND
THE NORTHWESTERN OUTFLOW IS CAUGHT UP BY THE MAJOR
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING AND ADVANCING FROM
EASTERN CHINA. STY 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD
THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA
BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS,
UKMET (EGRR), JGSM, JTYM, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, AFWA MM5 AND GFDN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS.
   C. STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS SOME INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 15W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND THEN CONTINUES 
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND RECENT
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR STY 15W TO TRACK 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AFTER COMPLETING 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/WAUGAMAN/KELSEY//

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