WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W/ 
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 110000Z9 SEP 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
40 KNOT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATION, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE MID-LEVELS,
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS REMAIN BROAD WHICH MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
   B. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE
FIRST CLUSTER CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, AND UKMET EGRR
TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH A STRONG RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE OTHER CLUSTER CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS AND JMA
TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) TRACK THE STORM TO THE NORTH TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH A SLIGHT
EMPHASIS ON THE FIRST CLUSTER.
   C. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER MARGINAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH TIME.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 15W TO TURN MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND WEAKENS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW AND SHEAR
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/KLINZMANN/KELSEY//

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