WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z1 TO 050000Z5 SEP 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
A 312235Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS
ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
   B. THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TY 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD HONG KONG ALONG
THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
   C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 14W IS MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS, TY 14W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
ABOVE-AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 14W TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL
AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/ANDERSON/ALLEN//