WDPN31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 311200Z7 AUG TO 051200Z8 SEP 2003. A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A RECENT 311214Z2 MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO HINT OF AN EYE AT 85 GHZ; HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL REVEALS A NICE SYMMETRICAL EYE. B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFWA WHICH DEPICTS AN UNREALISTIC TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY ONLY ONE HALF OF A DVORAK AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LINEAR TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LAND INTERACTION OF TY 14W WITH SOUTHERN TAIWAN WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND TO THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG, CHINA. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 310915Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE-AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 14W TO MAINTAIN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL AND WILL CEASE TO EXIST TO EXIST AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AT APPROXIMATELY THE 96 HOUR TAU. 3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/BAK/SANTOS/EDBERG//