WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z4 AUG TO 050000Z5 SEP 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
A 302322Z2 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
   B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS
ALONG THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 24 HOURS, THIS MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST, CAUSING TY 14W TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM,
AFWA MM5, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
   C. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS DECREASING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST FILLS AND PROPAGATES WESTWARD. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS HONG KONG. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 302048Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE-AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 14W TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/ANDERSON/ALLEN//