WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z6 AUG TO 041200Z7 SEP 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING EYE 
FEATURE.
   B. TY 14W IS DEVELOPING A LARGE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE EAST,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 TO 24
HOURS ALONG THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST, CAUSING
TY 14W TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5,
AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
   C. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST, PROVIDING GOOD
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW. AFTER 24 HOURS, TY 14W
WILL LOSE THE EASTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND RETURN TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 301048Z6 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE-AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 14W TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/HEATH/EDBERG//