WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W 
/WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z4 AUG TO 031200Z6 SEP 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS 14W IS DEVELOPING
A SECONDARY OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST AS THE TUTT CELL NORTH OF
THE STORM MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD. THE PRIMARY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG. 
   B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEN TS 14W WILL SHIFT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TILL
TAU 72 AS A SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS),
COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA AND EGRR ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. A POLEWARD CLUSTER OF NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSI,
JTYI, AND COWI ALL EXHIBIT EXTREME POLEWARD BIAS RELATIVE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THE LATEST
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS OF THE MOST RECENT UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS UPPER LEVEL CHART SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE IS HOLDING MUCH STRONGER
THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MAKING THEIR POLEWARD TRACKS
UNREALISTIC. THE SECONDARY CLUSTER OF EGGR AND NCEP IS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE EGRR AND GFS
FORECAST SOLUTIONS.
   C. THE PRESENCE OF A NEW OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST WITH THE ALREADY
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AT
A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER
THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TAU, TS 14W WILL LOSE THE EASTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND RETURN TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 14W TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WHEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. AT THIS POINT, TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND MORE
LINEAR AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE 200 MB RIDGE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL ASIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/PHILIPS/BIRD//

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