WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W 
/WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 AUG TO 030000Z3 SEP 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM 
EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
282330Z8 ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
TS 14W CONTINUES TO HAVE ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
   B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN WESTWARD,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING 
RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PASSING 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE NEAR TAU 
24 AND SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TILL TAU 72. AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, GFDN, AND 
EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. A POLEWARD CLUSTER 
CONSISTING OF GFDN AND NOGAPS, EXHIBITS INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. EGRR 
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH ONLY MODERATE 
INTENSIFICATION. A CENTRAL CLUSTER, CONSISTING OF COAMPS AND GFS,
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM WEAKEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON
NOGAPS AND GFDN.
   C. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST NORTH OF TS 14W AND NO LONGER PROVIDING
ENHANCED OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TS 14W IS EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP AT JUST BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN THE MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND GFS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AS OUTLINED IN PARA 1.B. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE THREE MODELS ADJUSTED FOR THE POSITION OF 
STEERING RIDGE WITHIN THE MODEL FIELDS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH. TS 14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW 
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/RONSSE/MENEBROKER/NUTONGLA//

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