WTPN31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 16.7N4 136.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 136.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.0N7 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 15.4N0 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 15.2N8 133.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 15.4N0 132.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 17.2N0 128.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 18.9N8 123.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 19.1N1 119.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5N2 136.4E4. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT QUICKSCAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3, 290300Z4, 290900Z0 AND 291500Z7.// NNNN