WDPN31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (VAMCO)/ WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 211200Z6 AUG 2003. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), JGSM, JTYM AND EGRR ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS INITIALIZING POORLY AND NOT MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TIME. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS AND GFS. C. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. INTERACTION WITH LAND NEAR TAIWAN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND LATER, INTERACTION WITH MAINLAND CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/BIRD// NNNN