WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W 
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 230000Z5 AUG 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
190025Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. 
TD 13W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION.
   B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS) AND EGRR 
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 
FACTORS. POSITION INITIALIZATION IN THE MODELS IS POOR AND 
INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF 12W VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN 
THE MODEL FIELDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A 
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER TAIWAN IS FORECAST TO SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT AND LATER, INTERACTION WITH MAINLAND CHINA WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL
TO AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA//

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