WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) KROVANH (12W)/
WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z9 TO 261200Z1 AUG 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 06
HOURS, EVIDENCED BY A LARGE RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
   B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HAINAN ISLAND WITHIN 12 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUING TO FINAL LANDFALL OVER
CHINA IN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
OVER LAND BY 48 HOURS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, COAMPS, EGRR, JTYM AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
   C. INTENSITY FOR TY 12W IS CURRENTLY PEAKING UNDER A FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LAND EFFECTS WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND LATER CHINA,
DISSIPATING OVERLAND BY TAU 48.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/BIRD//

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