WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) KROVANH (12W)/
WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 270000Z9 AUG 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST
OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TY 12W 
IS NOW TRACKING OVER WATER AGAIN, OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 
   B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE LUICHOW 
PENINSULA, CHINA IN APPROXIMATELY 48 TO 54 HOURS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, JTYM, EGRR, GFDN, AND 
JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED 
ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. 
   C. TY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA. ALTHOUGH ENTERING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING GOOD EXHAUST 
FOR THE SYSTEM, ASSISTING IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TY 12W DISSIPATING OVER LAND IN 
CHINA AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING 
RIDGE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA//

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