WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W 
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 190000Z0 AUG 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED
CYCLING CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHORT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE LLCC. 
   B. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP (GFS), EGRR AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND COWAMPS ARE THE OUTLIERS TO THIS
SCENARIO WITH NOGAPS PROJECTING A MORE POLEWARD SOLUTION WHILE
COMAMPS IS MORE EQUATORWARD, FORECASTING THE TRACK TO STAY
SOUTH OF GUAM.
   C. INTENSIFICATION OF TD 12W CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS FROM A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST INDUCING
SOUTHWEST SHEAR TO THE SYSTEM. THE TUTT FEATURE THAT IS
SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM
TD 12W AND SHOULD ALLOW THE ENVIRONMENT TO IMPROVE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AFTER APPROXIMATELY THE 48 HOUR TAU, TD 12W WILL
ENCOUNTER LINEAR FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION,
BUT AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
  D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/COOK/BAK/EDBERG///