WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (ETAU) WARNING/
NR/27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 091200Z2 TO 110000Z2 AUG 2003
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ETAU), LOCATED OVER LAND 
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS 
TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION OVER LAND AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THIS 
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS.
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS IT 
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, NOGAPS, EGRR, JGSM, AND JTYM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA IS AN OUTLIER TAKING TS 11W SIGNIFICANTLY 
SLOWER ALONG THE SAME TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED A CONSENSUS 
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 11W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND AND IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES OFF LAND INTO COOL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND COMPLETES ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
TS 11W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 06 
HOURS.
   D. TS 11W DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/MOHAMMED/JACOBS/MENEBROKER/NUTONGLA//

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