WDPN32 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (ETAU) WARNING/ NR/25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z9 TO 101200Z4 AUG 2003 A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (ETAU), LOCATED 180 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 082330Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RADAR FIXES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TY 11W MADE LANDFALL NEAR OSAKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT APPROXIMATELY 081900Z8. LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 973 MB. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRATIFORM CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED WITH LANDFALL AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IMAGERY. B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF JAPAN IS STEERING TY 11W TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, NOGAPS, NCEP(GFS), EGRR, GFDN, COAMPS, JGSM, AND JTYM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA IS AN OUTLIER TAKING TY 11W MUCH SLOWER ALONG THE SAME TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 11W HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. TY 11W REMAINS FAIRLY WELL VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT TRANSITS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT SKIRTS THE COASTLINE OF HONSHU AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. D. NO ANALYZED WIND RADII. 3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/BIRD// NNNN