WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING 
NR/07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 030000Z5 TO 061200Z9 AUG 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TD 11W HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TD 11W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AND TOWARD A
WEAKNESS SOUTH OF THE RYUKUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), EGRR, AND COAMPS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. NCEP GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE,
INTENSIFYING TD 11W AND SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND FAVORS GFS.
   C. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS INDICATES TD 11W WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ADEQUATE VENTILATION AND IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/DAMRON/PIVIN/LAM/ALLEN//

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