WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR/ 
01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z4 TO 041200Z7 AUG 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM 
EAST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. 
MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
CONSOLIDATING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TD 10W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN 
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN. THE 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALLOWING THE 
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE TRACK MORE WESTERLY. TD 10W 
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), AND EGRR 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS INDICATES A WEAK POINT SOURCE TO 
THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW. TD 10W SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. DUE TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TD 10W SHOULD INTENSIFY 
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/BIRD//

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