WTPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 19.2N2 124.3E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N2 124.3E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 20.2N4 123.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 21.3N6 121.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 22.2N6 120.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 23.2N7 119.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 24.9N5 117.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 27.8N7 117.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.5N5 124.0E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TS 10W CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION INCREASING ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.// BT #0001 NNNN