WDPN32 PGTW 231500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (IMBUDO) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 231200Z8 TO 250000Z7 JUL 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED 165 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, 
CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NORTH OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), JGSM, JTYM, 
GFDN, AFWA, AND EGRR REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS 
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE 
UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING WITHIN  
36 HOURS. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/BIRD//

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