UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (IMBUDO) WARNING/
NR 22//
RMKS/
WDPN32 PGTW 220300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z4 TO 250000Z7 JUL 2003.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM 
EAST OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. 
   B. STY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 09W IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG, CHINA NEAR THE 48 HOUR POINT. AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, 
GFDN, AFWA, AND EGRR CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO. RECENT TRENDS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SLIGHTLY 
EQUATORWARD OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS, ADJUSTING 
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS.
   C. STY 09W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PASSES OVER LUZON, BUT 
IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA. A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EQUATORWARD OF STY 09W IS PRESENT 
AND WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER OPEN WATER. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA//

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